Samsung Could Overtake SK Hynix as the Global HBM Market Leader in 2027, UBS Predicts

 Samsung Electronics could overtake SK Hynix and become the world’s largest supplier of high-bandwidth memory, or HBM, in 2027, according to a new forecast from global investment bank UBS.

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SK Hynix is expected to maintain its leadership position in 2026. However, UBS believes Samsung’s rapid expansion in next-generation HBM4 production could change the market rankings as early as next year.

According to the UBS forecast, the global HBM market shares based on bit shipments in 2027 could be:

• Samsung Electronics: 41%
• SK Hynix: 39%
• Micron Technology: 20%

The projection suggests that the gap between Samsung and SK Hynix could become extremely narrow, with Samsung taking the lead by only two percentage points.

SK Hynix Is Expected to Remain No. 1 in 2026

UBS expects SK Hynix to account for approximately 48% of global HBM bit shipments in 2026, allowing the company to retain its position as the market leader this year.

SK Hynix has established a strong competitive position in the artificial intelligence memory market by supplying HBM products to major semiconductor companies, including Nvidia.

The company gained an early advantage in HBM3 and HBM3E, supported by advanced manufacturing technology, stable production yields and close relationships with major AI chip customers.

However, UBS believes Samsung’s HBM shipment growth could begin to outpace that of SK Hynix in 2027.

Why Samsung Is Catching Up in the HBM Market

Samsung’s strongest advantage is its massive semiconductor production capacity.

The company has been expanding its HBM manufacturing capabilities at major semiconductor facilities in Pyeongtaek and Yongin, South Korea.

Samsung has also accelerated the production of HBM4, the sixth generation of high-bandwidth memory.

HBM4 is expected to offer higher data-processing speeds and improved energy efficiency compared with HBM3E. As AI accelerators and data-center processors become more powerful, demand for faster and more energy-efficient memory is expected to rise significantly.

Samsung also has a highly integrated semiconductor business structure.

The company operates businesses in:

• DRAM manufacturing
• Foundry services
• Advanced semiconductor packaging
• Logic chip design
• Memory chip production

This broad semiconductor portfolio could help Samsung integrate HBM production with advanced packaging and foundry technologies.

HBM is manufactured by stacking multiple DRAM chips vertically and connecting them through advanced packaging technology. As a result, companies need not only strong memory production capabilities but also advanced packaging expertise.

Samsung’s ability to manage several stages of semiconductor production internally could become an important competitive advantage in the HBM4 era.

Would Samsung’s Rise Mean Slower Growth for SK Hynix?

Samsung taking the top position would not necessarily mean that SK Hynix is entering a period of decline.

The overall HBM and memory semiconductor markets are still expanding rapidly.

UBS expects global DRAM bit demand growth to rise from 22% in 2026 to 36% in 2027.

The growth rate of NAND flash bit demand is also projected to increase from 20% to 23% during the same period.

This means that SK Hynix could lose some market share while still increasing its total HBM shipments and revenue.

For example, suppose the total HBM market grows from 100 units to 150 units.

A company with a 48% share of a 100-unit market would ship 48 units. Even if its market share later falls to 39%, it would ship 58.5 units in a 150-unit market.

Therefore, a decline in market share does not always mean a decline in actual sales.

Investors should examine several indicators together:

• Total HBM market growth
• HBM shipment volume
• Average selling prices
• Manufacturing yields
• Major customer relationships
• Operating profit margins
• HBM4 and HBM4E production schedules

Memory Chip Shortages Could Continue Until 2028

Demand for AI memory is rising rapidly, but supply is struggling to keep pace.

HBM requires significantly more wafer capacity than conventional DRAM because multiple memory chips must be stacked to produce a single HBM package.

As semiconductor companies allocate more DRAM wafer capacity to HBM, the supply of conventional memory products can also become limited.

In the NAND flash market, major manufacturers outside China have remained cautious about rapidly expanding production capacity.

UBS believes these structural supply constraints could keep the global memory market tight until 2028.

A prolonged supply shortage could support higher memory prices and improve profitability for both Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.

The situation differs from previous memory cycles, when manufacturers frequently expanded production too aggressively and caused sharp price declines.

This time, companies appear more focused on controlling supply and investing in high-value products such as HBM.

UBS Still Sees Upside Potential for SK Hynix

Despite predicting that Samsung could take the HBM market lead, UBS remains positive about SK Hynix.

The investment bank lowered its price target for SK Hynix from 3.2 million won to 3 million won but maintained the view that the stock still has meaningful upside potential.

UBS also reportedly issued a buy rating and a price target of $204 for SK Hynix’s American depositary receipt.

The investment bank argued that SK Hynix’s current valuation does not fully reflect several positive factors.

These include:

• Structurally higher memory profitability
• Strong demand for premium HBM products
• Improved free cash flow
• Greater pricing power
• The possibility of increased shareholder returns

SK Hynix has evolved from a traditional cyclical memory manufacturer into one of the most important suppliers in the global AI infrastructure market.

As AI data centers expand, HBM has become a critical component for graphics processing units and AI accelerators.

SK Hynix Could Announce Additional Shareholder Returns

UBS also expects that SK Hynix could begin a share buyback program worth approximately 1 trillion won during the second half of 2026.

The company could also announce a new shareholder return policy during an upcoming earnings conference call.

The new policy may include both dividend payments and share repurchases.

In the longer term, UBS believes SK Hynix could move toward returning approximately 50% of its free cash flow to shareholders.

Free cash flow represents the cash remaining after a company subtracts capital expenditure from the cash generated through its business operations.

Companies with strong free cash flow can use the money to:

• Increase dividends
• Repurchase shares
• Reduce debt
• Invest in future growth

However, the potential share buyback and new shareholder return policy remain UBS forecasts and have not yet been officially confirmed by SK Hynix.

Market Share Alone Will Not Determine the Winner

The competition between Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix cannot be judged solely by shipment volumes or market share.

Manufacturing yield and profitability will be equally important.

Manufacturing yield refers to the percentage of chips that meet quality standards during the production process.

HBM is more difficult to manufacture than conventional DRAM because several memory dies must be stacked and connected precisely.

If production yields remain low, manufacturing costs can increase significantly.

Therefore, a company may ship more HBM products but still generate lower profits if its production costs are high or its selling prices are weak.

Investors following Samsung should watch:

• HBM4 production yields
• Qualification by major AI chip customers
• Expansion of Pyeongtaek and Yongin facilities
• Advanced packaging competitiveness
• HBM operating profit margins

Investors following SK Hynix should monitor:

• Long-term contracts with major customers
• HBM4 and HBM4E mass-production schedules
• New manufacturing investments
• The sustainability of premium HBM margins
• Dividend and share buyback policies

What the UBS Forecast Means for the Global AI Chip Industry

If Samsung successfully becomes the world’s largest HBM supplier in 2027, it would mark a major recovery in the company’s AI memory business.

Samsung has long been the world’s largest memory chip manufacturer, but SK Hynix gained a significant advantage during the early stages of the AI-driven HBM boom.

A Samsung comeback would increase competition in the global HBM market and provide major AI chip companies with additional supply options.

At the same time, stronger competition could accelerate technological development in:

• HBM4
• HBM4E
• Advanced packaging
• Hybrid bonding
• Energy-efficient memory
• AI semiconductor integration

Micron is also expected to remain an important competitor, with UBS forecasting a 20% HBM market share in 2027.

The global HBM market could therefore develop into a three-company competition led by Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron.

Final Thoughts

UBS predicts that Samsung Electronics could capture 41% of the global HBM market in 2027, narrowly surpassing SK Hynix at 39%.

Samsung’s large manufacturing capacity and aggressive HBM4 expansion could help the company regain leadership in the global memory industry.

However, Samsung’s rise does not necessarily mean that SK Hynix will stop growing.

The global HBM market is expanding rapidly as artificial intelligence companies continue to build larger and more powerful data centers.

If memory supply remains limited until 2028, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix could both benefit from higher shipment volumes, stronger pricing and improved profitability.

The most important question is not simply which company becomes the market-share leader.

Investors should focus on production yields, customer relationships, product prices, operating margins, free cash flow and shareholder return policies.

The battle for leadership in the global HBM market is entering a new phase, and the transition to HBM4 could determine which company gains the strongest position in the next generation of AI infrastructure.

This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors are responsible for making their own investment decisions.